This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 50% to break even | 44%–95% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 50% to break even | 44%–87% | 20 points betterwon 70%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 50% to break even | 52%–87% | 24 points betterwon 73%, needs 50% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 50% to break even | 50%–96% | 34 points betterwon 83%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 12 of 1580%needs 50% to break even | 59%–92% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 17 of 2181%needs 50% to break even | 64%–91% | 31 points betterwon 81%, needs 50% |
Tonight MISS plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TEX. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against miss 1h +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 18 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 39 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | -11 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 17 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 27 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 8 | -4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | -9 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 14 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 11 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 35 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 12 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 20 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 18 | +18.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.