This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 52% to break even | 19%–65% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 52% to break even | 28%–67% | 5 points shortwon 47%, needs 52% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 52% to break even | 39%–80% | 10 points betterwon 62%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 52% to break even | 35%–70% | 1 points betterwon 53%, needs 52% |
Tonight USU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TXST. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2Q margin in each game against usu 2q +3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2Q margin | Beat -3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 9 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | -4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 22 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 4 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 17 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | -12 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | AFA | -3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | -20 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 7 | +10.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.