This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 50% to break even | 27%–86% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 50% to break even | 54%–93% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 50% to break even | 46%–83% | 16 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 50% to break even | 35%–88% | 16 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 50% to break even | 46%–85% | 19 points betterwon 69%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 50% to break even | 50%–83% | 18 points betterwon 68%, needs 50% |
Tonight USU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TXST. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against usu +13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 9 | 1 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | -19 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 11 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -33 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | -2 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -12 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 22 | -13 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -1 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 11 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -3 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 37 | +50.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | -19 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 5 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -18 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -20 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 41 | +54.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | AFA | 19 | +32.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | -22 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 12 | +25.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.