This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 38% to break even | 65%–100% | 62 points betterwon 100%, needs 38% | won by 13points |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 38% to break even | 65%–98% | 52 points betterwon 90%, needs 38% | won by 9.2points |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 38% to break even | 67%–95% | 48 points betterwon 87%, needs 38% | won by 8.3points |
| This season | 7 of 7100%needs 38% to break even | 72%–100% | 62 points betterwon 100%, needs 38% | won by 16.4points |
| Last season | 11 of 1385%needs 38% to break even | 63%–95% | 46 points betterwon 85%, needs 38% | won by 8.9points |
| Every game | 18 of 2090%needs 38% to break even | 74%–97% | 52 points betterwon 90%, needs 38% | won by 11.6points |
Tonight PITT plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 7 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against PITT +15, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -15 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -6 | +9 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -4 | +11 | Won | |
| Oct 2 | 2 | +17 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 59 | +74 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 14 | +29 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 5 | +20 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 45 | +60 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | -6 | +9 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | -31 | -16 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 14 | +29 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -22 | -7 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 15 | +30 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 19 | +34 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 17 | +32 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +18 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 41 | +56 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -7 | +8 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -7 | +8 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 28 | +43 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 52 | +67 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.