This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 35% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 35% to break even | 19%–65% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 35% to break even | 17%–54% | 1 points shortwon 33%, needs 35% |
| This season | 3 of 743%needs 35% to break even | 19%–71% | 8 points betterwon 43%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 3 of 1225%needs 35% to break even | 10%–49% | 10 points shortwon 25%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 6 of 1932%needs 35% to break even | 17%–50% | 3 points shortwon 32%, needs 35% |
Tonight STAN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against NCSU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against stan 3q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 17 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 9 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | -21 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.