This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 42% to break even | 5%–56% | 22 points shortwon 20%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 42% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 42% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 42% to break even | 10%–59% | 13 points shortwon 29%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 5 of 1242%needs 42% to break even | 22%–64% | evenwon 42%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 7 of 1937%needs 42% to break even | 21%–56% | 5 points shortwon 37%, needs 42% |
Tonight STAN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against NCSU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against stan 1h +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 14 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -37 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | -26 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | -22 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | -32 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -8 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | -14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.