This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 56% to break even | 65%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% | 105points |
| Last 10 games | 10 of 10100%needs 56% to break even | 79%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% | 106.7points |
| Last 15 games | 14 of 1593%needs 56% to break even | 75%–98% | 38 points betterwon 93%, needs 56% | 110.1points |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 56% to break even | 42%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% | 107points |
| Last season | 68 of 10664%needs 56% to break even | 56%–71% | 8 points betterwon 64%, needs 56% | 118.2points |
| Every game | 70 of 10865%needs 56% to break even | 57%–72% | 9 points betterwon 65%, needs 56% | 117.9points |
Tonight SA plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 32 of 52 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
SA points in each game against under 122.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | SA points | Beat 122.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 110 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | 104 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jun 13 | 90 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Jun 10 | 106 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jun 8 | 115 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 104 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 95 | +27.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 111 | +11.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 118 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | 114 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 103 | +19.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 108 | +14.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 113 | +9.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 122 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 139 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 109 | +13.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 115 | +7.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 133 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 102 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 114 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 114 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 120 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 103 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 111 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 118 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 139 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 112 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 115 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 134 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 118 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 127 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 129 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 127 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 123 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 136 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 134 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 101 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 132 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 119 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 115 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 131 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 125 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 145 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 116 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 121 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 131 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 89 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 110 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 23 | 114 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 139 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 121 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 136 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 138 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 135 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 116 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 112 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 106 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 111 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 95 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 106 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 123 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 119 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 98 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 103 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 100 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 107 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 105 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 110 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 123 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 134 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 101 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 114 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 117 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 130 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 124 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 119 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 16 | 113 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 111 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 10 | 132 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 135 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 117 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 114 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 112 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 139 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 115 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 102 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 135 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 111 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 123 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 108 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 120 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 121 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 126 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 121 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 116 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 118 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 107 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 121 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 118 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 120 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 125 | -2.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 118.5 team totalSan Antonio Spurs · Today 8:00 PM ETSA without HarrisDAL without Flagg | -191at Kalshi | 50 of 106· last season47%needs 66% to break even25 of 52 on the road | Record is last season's | -52.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 120.5 team totalSan Antonio Spurs · Today 8:00 PM ETSA without HarrisDAL without Flagg | -137at Kalshi | 44 of 106· last season42%needs 58% to break even22 of 52 on the road | Record is last season's | -46.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 122.5 team totalSan Antonio Spurs · Today 8:00 PM ETSA without HarrisDAL without Flagg | -103at Kalshi | 38 of 106· last season36%needs 51% to break even20 of 52 on the road | Record is last season's | -41.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 124.5 team totalSan Antonio Spurs · Today 8:00 PM ETSA without HarrisDAL without Flagg | +129at Kalshi | 33 of 106· last season31%needs 44% to break even17 of 52 on the road | Record is last season's | -35.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.