This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 51% to break even | 5%–56% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% | 4.4assists |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 5.3assists |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 51% to break even | 33%–72% | 3 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% | 5.7assists |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 51% to break even | 0%–58% | 51 points shortwon 0%, needs 51% | 4assists |
| Last season | 40 of 8547%needs 51% to break even | 38%–56% | 4 points shortwon 47%, needs 51% | 5.3assists |
| Every game | 40 of 8746%needs 51% to break even | 37%–55% | 5 points shortwon 46%, needs 51% | 5.3assists |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, on a back-to-back, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 22 of 44 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against over 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 1 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 21 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 assistsAmen Thompson · Today 8:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 45 of 85· last season53%needs 57% to break even22 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.