This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 67% to break even | 14%–73% | 27 points shortwon 40%, needs 67% | 14.2points and rebounds |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 67% to break even | 44%–87% | 3 points betterwon 70%, needs 67% | 18.5points and rebounds |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 67% to break even | 59%–92% | 13 points betterwon 80%, needs 67% | 20.2points and rebounds |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 67% to break even | 0%–73% | 67 points shortwon 0%, needs 67% | 9points and rebounds |
| Last season | 37 of 5469%needs 67% to break even | 57%–78% | 2 points betterwon 69%, needs 67% | 19.5points and rebounds |
| Every game | 37 of 5567%needs 67% to break even | 56%–77% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 67% | 19.3points and rebounds |
Tonight CLE plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against BKN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 26 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against over 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 1 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 16 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 25 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 20 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 15 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 20 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 34 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 25 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 21 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 16 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 43 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 23 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 15 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 26 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 23 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 38 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 27 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 36 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 36 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 31 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 27 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 25 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 32 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 20 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 6 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 23 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 5 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 23 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 18 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 15 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 18 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 20 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 16 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 21 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 32 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 22 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 19 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 44 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 8 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 15 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 4 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 3 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 23 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 10 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 4 | -10.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 17.5 pts + rebPeyton Watson · Today 7:40 PM ET | -127at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 56% to break even12 of 26 at home | -22.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.