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NBAGame lineTeam total
Under 112.5 (team total)
Won24 of 83last season · 29%
Best price+198Kalshi
Price needs33.6%wins to break even
Every game25 of 84this season and last
Trend score-21.9Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 34% to break even | 7%–46% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 34% to break even | 8%–41% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 34% to break even | 27%–100% | 66 points betterwon 100%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 24 of 8329%needs 34% to break even | 21%–38% | 5 points shortwon 29%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 25 of 8430%needs 34% to break even | 22%–38% | 4 points shortwon 30%, needs 34% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Under 112.5 (team total)1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
MIA points in each game against under 112.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | MIA points | Beat 112.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  MIN | 106 | +6.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 |  CHA | 126 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 |  ATL | 143 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Apr 10 |  WSH | 140 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Apr 9 |  TOR | 114 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | TOR | 95 | +17.5 | Won |
| Apr 4 | WSH | 152 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  BOS | 129 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  PHI | 119 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 29 |  IND | 118 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Mar 27 |  CLE | 128 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 | CLE | 120 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  SA | 111 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 21 |  HOU | 122 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 19 |  LAL | 126 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 | CHA | 106 | +6.5 | Won |
| Mar 14 |  ORL | 117 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MIL | 112 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 10 | WSH | 150 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 |  DET | 121 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Mar 6 | CHA | 128 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Mar 5 |  BKN | 126 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Mar 3 | BKN | 124 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Feb 28 | HOU | 115 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 26 | PHI | 117 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 | MIL | 117 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 |  MEM | 136 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Feb 20 | ATL | 128 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Feb 11 |  NO | 123 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Feb 9 |  UTAH | 111 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 8 | WSH | 132 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Feb 6 | BOS | 96 | +16.5 | Won |
| Feb 3 | ATL | 115 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  CHI | 134 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Jan 31 | CHI | 118 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | CHI | 116 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 28 | ORL | 124 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Jan 25 |  PHX | 111 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 24 | UTAH | 147 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Jan 22 |  POR | 110 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 20 |  SAC | 130 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 19 |  GS | 112 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 17 |  OKC | 122 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Jan 15 | BOS | 114 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 13 | PHX | 127 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | OKC | 112 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 10 | IND | 99 | +13.5 | Won |
| Jan 6 | MIN | 94 | +18.5 | Won |
| Jan 4 | NO | 125 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | MIN | 115 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 1 | DET | 118 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 29 |  DEN | 147 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | IND | 142 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Dec 26 | ATL | 126 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Dec 23 | TOR | 91 | +21.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 |  NY | 125 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Dec 19 | BOS | 116 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | BKN | 106 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | TOR | 96 | +16.5 | Won |
| Dec 9 | ORL | 108 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 6 | SAC | 111 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 5 | ORL | 105 | +7.5 | Won |
| Dec 3 |  DAL | 108 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 1 |  LAC | 140 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | DET | 135 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | MIL | 106 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | DAL | 106 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | PHI | 127 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Nov 21 | CHI | 143 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Nov 19 | GS | 110 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 17 | NY | 115 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | NY | 132 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | CLE | 116 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | CLE | 140 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | POR | 136 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | CHA | 126 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Nov 5 | DEN | 112 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 3 | LAC | 120 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | LAL | 120 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | SA | 101 | +11.5 | Won |
| Oct 28 | CHA | 144 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | NY | 115 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | MEM | 146 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | ORL | 121 | -8.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 114.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET |  -183at Kalshi | 57 of 83· last season69%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 116.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 118.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 120.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 39 of 83· last season47%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 122.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 35 of 83· last season42%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 124.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 32 of 83· last season39%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Miami Heat in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.