This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 58% to break even | 5%–56% | 38 points shortwon 20%, needs 58% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 58% to break even | 13%–56% | 28 points shortwon 30%, needs 58% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 58% to break even | 17%–54% | 24 points shortwon 33%, needs 58% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 58% to break even | 0%–73% | 58 points shortwon 0%, needs 58% |
| Last season | 36 of 7151%needs 58% to break even | 41%–60% | 7 points shortwon 51%, needs 58% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 pointsDavion Mitchell · Today 8:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesDavion Mitchell · |
| 40%–60% |
| 8 points shortwon 50%, needs 58% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 28 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 1 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| +101at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 50% to break even |
| -5.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +159at Kalshi |
| 30 of 71· last season42%needs 39% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 assistsDavion Mitchell · Today 8:10 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 24 of 71· last season34%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 assistsDavion Mitchell · Today 8:10 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 44 of 71· last season62%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 assistsDavion Mitchell · Today 8:10 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 27 of 71· last season38%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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