This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 40% to break even | 13%–56% | 10 points shortwon 30%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 40% to break even | 13%–48% | 13 points shortwon 27%, needs 40% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 40% to break even | 0%–73% | 40 points shortwon 0%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 17 of 7423%needs 40% to break even | 16%–32% | 17 points shortwon 23%, needs 40% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 pointsBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 29.5 pts + reb + astBam Adebayo |
| 16%–31% |
| 17 points shortwon 23%, needs 40% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 6 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 25 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 29 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 23 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 32 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 28 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 83 | -68.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 23 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 29 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 27 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 23 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 16 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 16 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 26 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 32 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 25 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 4 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 30 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 29 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 6 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 16 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 8 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 27 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 18 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 2 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 25 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 31 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 26 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -183at Kalshi |
| 57 of 74· last season77%needs 65% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -126at Kalshi |
| 49 of 74· last season66%needs 56% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -8.7Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 assistsBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 45% to break even | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 threesBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 41 of 74· last season55%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 threesBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 33 of 74· last season45%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 assistsBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 46 of 74· last season62%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.8Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 pts + reb + astBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 25 of 74· last season34%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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