This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 52% to break even | 13%–56% | 22 points shortwon 30%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 52% to break even | 13%–48% | 25 points shortwon 27%, needs 52% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 52% to break even | 27%–100% | 48 points betterwon 100%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 25 of 7434%needs 52% to break even | 25%–43% | 18 points shortwon 34%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 26 of 7535%needs 52% to break even | 26%–44% | 17 points shortwon 35%, needs 52% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb + ast in each game against under 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb + ast | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 26 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 10 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 38 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 39 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 43 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 19 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 41 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 45 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 33 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 34 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 25 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 57 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 40 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 28 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 31 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 95 | -65.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 39 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 40 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 36 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 36 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 46 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 29 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 45 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 39 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 33 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 31 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 32 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 33 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 34 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 40 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 43 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 44 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 37 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 19 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 46 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 31 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 42 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 21 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 25 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 29 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 27 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 23 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 26 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 32 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 29 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 19 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 42 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 29 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 44 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 26 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 24 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 32 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 3 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 39 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 44 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 34 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 35 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 33 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 29 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 29.5 pts + reb + astBam Adebayo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 49 of 74· last season66%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.