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NBAPlayer propPoints
Ausar Thompson under 9.5 points
Won47 of 87last season · 54%
Best price-107Kalshi
Price needs51.7%wins to break even
Every game47 of 88this season and last
Trend score-13.6Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 52% to break even | 27%–86% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 52% to break even | 35%–81% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 52% to break even | 39%–78% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 52% to break even | 0%–73% | 52 points shortwon 0%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 47 of 8754%needs 52% to break even | 45%–63% | 2 points betterwon 54%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 47 of 8853%needs 52% to break even | 45%–62% | 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 52% |
Games like tonight
Tonight DET plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Ausar Thompson under 9.5 points1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 |  BOS | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| May 17 |  CLE | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| May 15 | CLE | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 13 | CLE | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| May 11 | CLE | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| May 9 | CLE | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 7 | CLE | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 5 | CLE | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 3 |  ORL | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 1 | ORL | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Apr 29 | ORL | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Apr 27 | ORL | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Apr 25 | ORL | 17 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Apr 22 | ORL | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 19 | ORL | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 12 |  IND | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 10 |  CHA | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Apr 8 |  MIL | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 6 | ORL | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 4 |  PHI | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Apr 2 |  MIN | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 31 |  TOR | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Mar 30 |  OKC | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 28 | MIN | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 26 |  NO | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  ATL | 18 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  LAL | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 20 |  GS | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 19 |  WSH | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 | WSH | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 15 | TOR | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Mar 5 |  SA | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Mar 3 | CLE | 16 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 | ORL | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 27 | CLE | 18 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Feb 25 | OKC | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 23 | SA | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 21 |  CHI | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 19 |  NY | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 11 | TOR | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Feb 9 | CHA | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Feb 6 | NY | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Feb 5 | WSH | 13 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 |  DEN | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  BKN | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 30 | GS | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 29 |  PHX | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 27 | DEN | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jan 25 |  SAC | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jan 23 |  HOU | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 21 | NO | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 19 | BOS | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 17 | IND | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 15 | PHX | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jan 10 |  LAC | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 7 | CHI | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 5 | NY | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | CLE | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 1 |  MIA | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 30 | LAL | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 28 | LAC | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 26 |  UTAH | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | SAC | 19 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Dec 22 |  POR | 18 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 20 | CHA | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 |  DAL | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | BOS | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 12 | ATL | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | MIL | 13 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | POR | 15 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 | MIL | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 1 | ATL | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | MIA | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 28 | ORL | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 26 | BOS | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | IND | 13 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | MIL | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 18 | ATL | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | PHI | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | BKN | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 5 | UTAH | 18 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 |  MEM | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | DAL | 15 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 | ORL | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 27 | CLE | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | BOS | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | HOU | 19 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | CHI | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 pointsAusar Thompson · Today 8:10 PM ET |  -116at Kalshi | 40 of 87· last season46%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Ausar Thompson in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 stealsAusar Thompson · Today 8:10 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even | -11.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 3.5 assistsAusar Thompson · Today 8:10 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 53 of 87· last season61%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 3.5 assistsAusar Thompson · Today 8:10 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 64% to break even | -27.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 stealsAusar Thompson · Today 8:10 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 50 of 87· last season57%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.