This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 49% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 49% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 49% to break even | 39%–78% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 49% to break even | 27%–100% | 51 points betterwon 100%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 21 of 3658%needs 49% to break even | 45%–71% | 10 points betterwon 58%, needs 49% |
| Every game | 22 of 3759%needs 49% to break even | 46%–72% | 11 points betterwon 59%, needs 49% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 15 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 1 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 18 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 9 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 9 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 assistsGiannis Antetokounmpo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 15 of 36· last season42%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 reboundsGiannis Antetokounmpo · Today 8:10 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 29.5 pointsGiannis Antetokounmpo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 61% to break even | -19.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 29.5 pointsGiannis Antetokounmpo · Today 8:10 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 17 of 36· last season47%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 reboundsGiannis Antetokounmpo · Today 8:10 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 17 of 36· last season47%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.