This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 36% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 36% to break even | 22%–61% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 36% to break even | 0%–73% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 35 of 8442%needs 36% to break even | 33%–51% | 6 points betterwon 42%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 35 of 8541%needs 36% to break even | 33%–50% | 5 points betterwon 41%, needs 36% |
Tonight GS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MEM. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 227.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 227.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 232 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 17 | 207 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 247 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 225 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 242 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 222 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 233 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 229 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 240 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 209 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 257 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 268 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 236 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 216 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 219 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 242 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 217 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 244 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 254 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 235 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 201 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 228 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 215 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 230 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 245 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 222 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 245 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 231 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 239 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 227 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 204 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 198 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 207 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 255 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 264 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 191 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 196 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 238 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 272 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 247 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 252 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 239 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 216 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 235 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 240 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 233 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 205 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 237 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 225 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 257 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 227 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 268 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 242 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 217 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 235 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 197 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 267 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 247 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 214 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 193 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 197 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 236 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 200 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 204 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 251 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 250 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 206 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 234 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 230 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 217 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 245 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 228 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 197 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 233 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 237 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 225 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 223 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 230 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 177 | +50.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 249 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 258 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 268 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 228 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.