This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 46% to break even | 22%–61% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 46% to break even | 27%–100% | 54 points betterwon 100%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 36 of 8244%needs 46% to break even | 35%–53% | 2 points shortwon 44%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 37 of 8345%needs 46% to break even | 36%–54% | 1 points shortwon 45%, needs 46% |
Tonight MEM plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2Q margin in each game against mem 2q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 15 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | -15 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | -19 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | -16 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | -13 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | -15 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | -8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | -17 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | -18 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | -8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | -15 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | -8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 9 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | -11 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 20 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 17 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 15 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | -13 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | -11 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 13 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 18 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | -20 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | -8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.