This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 57% to break even | 14%–73% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 57% to break even | 19%–65% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 57% to break even | 17%–54% | 24 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 57% to break even | 27%–100% | 43 points betterwon 100%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 4 of 1527%needs 57% to break even | 13%–48% | 31 points shortwon 27%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 5 of 1631%needs 57% to break even | 16%–52% | 26 points shortwon 31%, needs 57% |
Tonight MEM plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + ast in each game against over 27.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + ast | Beat 27.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 51 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 23 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 30 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 34 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 30 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 16 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 27 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 26 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 26 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 35 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 27 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 26 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 26.5 pts + astTy Jerome · Today 10:10 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 9 of 15· last season60%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 27.5 pts + astTy Jerome · Today 10:10 PM ET | +105at Bovada | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 28.5 pts + astTy Jerome · Today 10:10 PM ET | -119at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.