This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% | 3threes |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 43% to break even | 13%–56% | 13 points shortwon 30%, needs 43% | 2.5threes |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 43% to break even | 28%–67% | 4 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% | 2.1threes |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 43% to break even | 27%–100% | 57 points betterwon 100%, needs 43% | 1threes |
| Last season | 19 of 6231%needs 43% to break even | 22%–41% | 12 points shortwon 31%, needs 43% | 2.4threes |
| Every game | 20 of 6332%needs 43% to break even | 23%–42% | 11 points shortwon 32%, needs 43% | 2.3threes |
Tonight PHX plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 31 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 6 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 43 of 62· last season69%needs 60% to break even25 of 31 at home | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 threesDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | +208at Kalshi | 24 of 62· last season39%needs 32% to break even14 of 31 at home | Record is last season's | -5.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.