This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 34% to break even | 27%–86% | 26 points betterwon 60%, needs 34% | 22.8points |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 34% to break even | 27%–73% | 16 points betterwon 50%, needs 34% | 19.7points |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 34% to break even | 22%–61% | 6 points betterwon 40%, needs 34% | 17.5points |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 34% to break even | 0%–73% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% | 10points |
| Last season | 34 of 6255%needs 34% to break even | 44%–65% | 20 points betterwon 55%, needs 34% | 20.5points |
| Every game | 34 of 6354%needs 34% to break even | 44%–64% | 19 points betterwon 54%, needs 34% | 20.3points |
Tonight PHX plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 24 of 31 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 27 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 33 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 30 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 12 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 28 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 9 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 5 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 28 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 24 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 27 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 40 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 26 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 26 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 27 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 5 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 25 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 27 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 26 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 14 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 25 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 24 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 10 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 33 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 27 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 29 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 25 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 12 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 34 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 32 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 pointsDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 47% to break even3 of 31 at home | -26.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 16.5 pointsDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | -114at Caesars | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even4 of 31 at home | -29.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.