This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 28.4points and rebounds |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 24.3points and rebounds |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 21.7points and rebounds |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 53% to break even | 27%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 14points and rebounds |
| Last season | 24 of 6239%needs 53% to break even | 29%–49% | 15 points shortwon 39%, needs 53% | 24.2points and rebounds |
| Every game | 25 of 6340%needs 53% to break even | 30%–50% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 24.1points and rebounds |
Tonight PHX plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 31 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 27 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 40 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 36 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 33 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 13 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 48 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 11 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 32 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 11 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 34 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 10 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 35 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 32 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 40 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 33 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 pts + rebDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | -139at DraftKings | 41 of 62· last season66%needs 58% to break even26 of 31 at home | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 20.5 pts + rebDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 38 of 62· last season61%needs 53% to break even25 of 31 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 pts + rebDillon Brooks · Today 10:10 PM ET | +215at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 32% to break even24 of 31 at home | 4.2Good |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.