This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% | 23.6points and assists |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 56% to break even | 13%–56% | 26 points shortwon 30%, needs 56% | 24.7points and assists |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 56% to break even | 8%–41% | 36 points shortwon 20%, needs 56% | 24.9points and assists |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 56% to break even | 42%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% | 14.5points and assists |
| Last season | 26 of 7435%needs 56% to break even | 27%–45% | 20 points shortwon 35%, needs 56% | 22.9points and assists |
| Every game | 28 of 7637%needs 56% to break even | 28%–46% | 19 points shortwon 37%, needs 56% | 22.7points and assists |
Tonight MIL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 16 of 37 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + ast in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + ast | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 8 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 40 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 7 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 32 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 6 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 46 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 40 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 17.5 pts + astRyan Rollins · Today 7:40 PM ET | -170at Bovada | 51 of 74· last season69%needs 63% to break even24 of 37 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 18.5 pts + astRyan Rollins · Today 7:40 PM ET | -128at FanDuel | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 56% to break even23 of 37 on the road | -6.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 pts + astRyan Rollins · Today 7:40 PM ET | +100at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 50% to break even21 of 37 on the road | -1.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.