This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 59% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 59% to break even | 54%–93% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 59% to break even | 59%–92% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 59% to break even | 0%–73% | 59 points shortwon 0%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 26 of 3967%needs 59% to break even | 54%–78% | 7 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 26 of 4065%needs 59% to break even | 52%–76% | 6 points betterwon 65%, needs 59% |
Tonight SAC plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against POR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Feb 6 | 6 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 11 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 35 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 42 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 2 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 34 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 13 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 7 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 9 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 32 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.