This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 48% to break even | 19%–65% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 48% to break even | 33%–72% | 6 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 48% to break even | 27%–100% | 52 points betterwon 100%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 48 of 9153%needs 48% to break even | 44%–61% | 5 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 49 of 9253%needs 48% to break even | 45%–62% | 6 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
Tonight MIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ORL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against min -3, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 3 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 25 | +22 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 15 | -30 | -33 | Lost | |
| May 12 | -29 | -32 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 5 | +2 | Won | |
| May 8 | -7 | -10 | Lost | |
| May 6 | -38 | -41 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | 12 | +9 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | -12 | -15 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 16 | +13 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 17 | +14 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 5 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | -11 | -14 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 6 | +3 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | -12 | -15 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 20 | +17 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | -14 | -17 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | -12 | -15 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | -5 | -8 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 30 | +27 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | -22 | -25 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 10 | +7 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | -4 | -7 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 36 | +33 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 12 | +9 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | -13 | -16 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 10 | +7 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | -25 | -28 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | -14 | -17 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | -27 | -30 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 8 | +5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 7 | +4 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 9 | +6 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 6 | +3 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 3 | 0 | Tie | |
| Feb 22 | -27 | -30 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 11 | +8 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 24 | +21 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 22 | +19 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | -19 | -22 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | -4 | -7 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 2 | -1 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | -9 | -12 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 17 | +14 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 12 | +9 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 13 | +10 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 25 | +22 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | -26 | -29 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | -5 | -8 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | -5 | -8 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -3 | -6 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | -5 | -8 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 33 | +30 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 1 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | -12 | -15 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 9 | +6 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 28 | +25 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 26 | +23 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 10 | +7 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | -24 | -27 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 35 | +32 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | -16 | -19 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | -4 | -7 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 11 | +8 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 3 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 19 | 5 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 17 | -6 | -9 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 14 | +11 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 7 | +4 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | -3 | -6 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 3 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 4 | 9 | +6 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 7 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 13 | +10 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | -8 | -11 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | -5 | -8 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | -1 | -4 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 11 | +8 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 24 | +21 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -11 | -14 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 14 | +11 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 7 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 27 | +24 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 40 | +37 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | -23 | -26 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 16 | +13 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 17 | +14 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | -1 | -4 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | -13 | -16 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | -18 | -21 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.