This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 47% to break even | 5%–56% | 27 points shortwon 20%, needs 47% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 47% to break even | 13%–56% | 17 points shortwon 30%, needs 47% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 47% to break even | 13%–48% | 20 points shortwon 27%, needs 47% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 47% to break even | 27%–100% | 53 points betterwon 100%, needs 47% |
| Last season | 15 of 4038%needs 47% to break even | 26%–51% | 9 points shortwon 38%, needs 47% |
| Every game |
Tonight ORL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 threesFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 assistsFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET |
| 28%–52% |
| 8 points shortwon 39%, needs 47% |
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| -148at Kalshi |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 60% to break even |
| -10.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -161at Kalshi |
| 32 of 40· last season80%needs 62% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -2.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 reboundsFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 60% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 pointsFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 11 of 40· last season28%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 18 of 40· last season45%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.9Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pts + reb + astFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 40· last season23%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.6Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 assistsFranz Wagner · Today 7:10 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 8 of 40· last season20%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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