This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 37% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% | 0.6threes |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 37% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% | 0.5threes |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 37% to break even | 33%–72% | 16 points betterwon 53%, needs 37% | 0.7threes |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 37% to break even | 0%–58% | 37 points shortwon 0%, needs 37% | 0threes |
| Last season | 22 of 8227%needs 37% to break even | 20%–36% | 10 points shortwon 27%, needs 37% | 0.3threes |
| Every game | 22 of 8426%needs 37% to break even | 19%–35% | 11 points shortwon 26%, needs 37% | 0.3threes |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, on a back-to-back, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 16 of 40 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.