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NBAPlayer propThrees
Stephon Castle under 1.5 threes
Won60 of 92last season · 65%
Best price-142Kalshi
Price needs58.7%wins to break even
Every game60 of 93this season and last
Trend score-18.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 59% to break even | 35%–81% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 59% to break even | 46%–83% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 59% to break even | 0%–73% | 59 points shortwon 0%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 60 of 9265%needs 59% to break even | 57%–73% | 7 points betterwon 65%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 60 of 9365%needs 59% to break even | 56%–72% | 6 points betterwon 65%, needs 59% |
Games like tonight
Tonight SA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Stephon Castle under 1.5 threes1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 |  OKC | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jun 13 |  NY | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 10 | NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jun 8 | NY | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jun 5 | NY | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jun 3 | NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 30 | OKC | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 28 | OKC | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 26 | OKC | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 24 | OKC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 22 | OKC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 20 | OKC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 18 | OKC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 15 |  MIN | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| May 12 | MIN | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 10 | MIN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 8 | MIN | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 6 | MIN | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 4 | MIN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 28 |  POR | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 26 | POR | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 24 | POR | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 21 | POR | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 19 | POR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 12 |  DEN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 6 |  PHI | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 4 | DEN | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 2 |  LAC | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  GS | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  CHI | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 28 |  MIL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  MEM | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 23 |  MIA | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 |  SAC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 16 | LAC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 14 |  CHA | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 12 | DEN | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 |  BOS | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 |  HOU | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 6 | LAC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 5 |  DET | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 3 | PHI | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 1 | NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 26 |  BKN | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 25 |  TOR | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 23 | DET | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 21 | SAC | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 19 |  PHX | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 11 | GS | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 10 |  LAL | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 7 |  DAL | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 5 | DAL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 4 | OKC | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 31 | CHA | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 28 | HOU | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 25 |  NO | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 22 |  UTAH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 20 | HOU | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 19 | UTAH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 17 | MIN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 15 | MIL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 13 | OKC | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | MIN | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 10 | BOS | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 7 | LAL | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 6 | MEM | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | POR | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 2 |  IND | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 31 | NY | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 29 |  CLE | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 27 | UTAH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 25 | OKC | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | OKC | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 |  WSH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 19 |  ATL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 18 | WSH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 16 | NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 13 | OKC | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 10 | LAL | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 8 | NO | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | SAC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 14 | GS | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 12 | GS | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 10 | CHI | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | NO | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 7 | HOU | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 | LAL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | PHX | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | MIA | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 27 | TOR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | BKN | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 24 | NO | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | DAL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris |  +109at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even | -24.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Stephon Castle in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 reboundsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -137at Kalshi | 53 of 92· last season58%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 5.5 reboundsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +114at Kalshi | 39 of 92· last season42%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.