This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 40% to break even | 14%–73% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 40% to break even | 19%–65% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 40% to break even | 22%–61% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 40% to break even | 27%–100% | 60 points betterwon 100%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 29 of 8036%needs 40% to break even | 28%–45% | 3 points shortwon 36%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 30 of 8137%needs 40% to break even | 29%–46% | 3 points shortwon 37%, needs 40% |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Steals in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Steals | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 21 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 15 | STRIPES | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 assistsAlperen Sengun · Today 9:40 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 45 of 80· last season56%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 reboundsAlperen Sengun · Today 9:40 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even | -17.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 0.5 blocksAlperen Sengun · Today 9:40 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 31 of 80· last season39%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 9.5 reboundsAlperen Sengun · Today 9:40 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 46 of 80· last season57%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 5.5 assistsAlperen Sengun · Today 9:40 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 35 of 80· last season44%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.