This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 48% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 48% to break even | 33%–72% | 6 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 48% to break even | 0%–73% | 48 points shortwon 0%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 43 of 8948%needs 48% to break even | 40%–57% | 1 points betterwon 48%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 43 of 9048%needs 48% to break even | 39%–56% | evenwon 48%, needs 48% |
Tonight SA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 25.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 25.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 12 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jun 13 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 32 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 29 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 28 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 33 | +7.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 21 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 41 | +15.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 27 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 4 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 39 | +13.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 11 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 17 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 27 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 5 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 35 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 40 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 17 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 34 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 41 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 41 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 34 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 18 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 21 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 32 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 39 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 29 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 27 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 38 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 10 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 25 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 12 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 12 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 21 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 28 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 17 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 15 | STRIPES | 19 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Feb 11 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 40 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 16 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 29 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 25 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 16 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 28 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 16 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 14 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 33 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 39 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 17 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 29 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 21 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 16 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 30 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 31 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 32 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 12 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 14 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 15 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 16 | 18 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 26 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 31 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 38 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 18 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 9 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 27 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 31 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 29 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 40 | +14.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 21.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +210at Bovada | 36 of 89· last season40%needs 32% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 22.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +170at Bovada | 41 of 89· last season46%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 23.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +135at Bovada | 42 of 89· last season47%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +110at Bovada | 44 of 89· last season49%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 25.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -110at Bovada | 46 of 89· last season52%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 26.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -130at Bovada | 54 of 89· last season61%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 27.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -160at Bovada | 58 of 89· last season65%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 28.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -200at Bovada | 61 of 89· last season69%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 29.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -240at Bovada | 66 of 89· last season74%needs 71% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 30.5 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -300at Bovada | 67 of 89· last season75%needs 75% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.