This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 32% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 32% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points betterwon 40%, needs 32% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 32% to break even | 13%–56% | 2 points shortwon 30%, needs 32% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 32% to break even | 17%–54% | 1 points betterwon 33%, needs 32% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 32% to break even | 27%–100% | 68 points betterwon 100%, needs 32% |
| Last season | 20 of 9222%needs 32% to break even | 16%–30% | 11 points shortwon 22%, needs 32% |
| Every game |
Tonight SA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 pointsStephon Castle |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes triple-doubleStephon Castle |
| 21 of 9323%needs 32% to break even |
| 16%–30% |
| 10 points shortwon 23%, needs 32% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 24 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jun 13 | 6 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 24 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 25 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 32 | +11.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 33 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 22 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 3 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 30 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 6 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 11 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 2 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 40 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 8 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 11 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 9 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 5 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 24 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 16 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 22 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 10 | 30 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 18 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 4 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 23 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 14 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 26 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 21 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 22 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 13 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 22 | +1.5 | Won | |
| +175at Bovada |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even |
| -15.2Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 pointsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +135at Bovada | 34 of 92· last season37%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 pointsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +105at Bovada | 44 of 92· last season48%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 pointsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -118at DraftKings | 52 of 92· last season57%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Under 18.5 pointsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -150at Bovada | 60 of 92· last season65%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 pointsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -190at Bovada | 66 of 92· last season72%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 pointsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -240at Bovada | 72 of 92· last season78%needs 71% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +3100at DraftKings |
| 5 of 92· last season5%needs 3% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -2.4Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 assistsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -143at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 59% to break even | -3.2Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 reb + astStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -110at FanDuel | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even | -4.5Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 reb + astStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -170at Bovada | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 63% to break even | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 reb + astStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +130at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 43% to break even | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 stealsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -263at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 72% to break even | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 assistsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +130at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 43% to break even | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 reboundsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -167at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 reboundsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -121at BetRivers | 53 of 92· last season58%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Yes double-doubleStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | +475at Fanatics | 22 of 92· last season24%needs 17% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 assistsStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -275at Bovada | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 73% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 pts + rebStephon Castle · Today 9:40 PM ETWithout Harris | -110at DraftKings | 53 of 92· last season58%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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