This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 43% to break even | 44%–95% | 37 points betterwon 80%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 43% to break even | 65%–98% | 47 points betterwon 90%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 43% to break even | 59%–92% | 37 points betterwon 80%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 43% to break even | 27%–100% | 57 points betterwon 100%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 47 of 8357%needs 43% to break even | 48%–65% | 14 points better |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 15.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 22.5 pts + reb + astJabari Smith Jr |
| Every game | 48 of 8457%needs 43% to break even | 48%–66% | 15 points betterwon 57%, needs 43% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 15.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 30 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 1 | 9 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 22 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 24 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 19 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 23 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 12 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 21 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 13 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 23 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 22 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 23 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 3 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 13 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 12 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 31 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 21 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 13 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 22 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 13 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 19 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 19 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 14 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 8 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 8 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 13 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 32 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 9 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 9 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 13 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 7 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 14 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 21 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 22 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 12 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 22 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 14 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 12 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 21 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 14 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 10 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 22 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 5 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 12 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 25 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 16 | +0.5 | Won | |
| +165at Bovada |
| 15 of 83· last season18%needs 38% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -31.1Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 20 of 83· last season24%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -35.5Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | +107at BetRivers | 26 of 83· last season31%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -37.7Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 30 of 83· last season36%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -41.8Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -180at Bovada | 36 of 83· last season43%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -49.3Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -230at Bovada | 49 of 83· last season59%needs 70% to break even | Record is last season's | -40.7Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 pointsJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -300at Bovada | 55 of 83· last season66%needs 75% to break even | Record is last season's | -44.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +106at BetOnline |
| 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 49% to break even |
| 22.8Very strong |
| Over 21.5 pts + reb + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -115at Bovada | 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 53% to break even | 19.3Very strong |
| Over 20.5 pts + rebJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -104at DraftKings | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 51% to break even | 18.3Very strong |
| Over 23.5 pts + reb + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 44% to break even | 18.0Very strong |
| Over 19.5 pts + rebJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -127at DraftKings | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 56% to break even | 14.5Strong |
| Over 20.5 pts + reb + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -150at Bovada | 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 60% to break even | 14.2Strong |
| Over 18.5 pts + rebJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -165at Bovada | 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 62% to break even | 12.1Strong |
| Over 19.5 pts + reb + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -185at Bovada | 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 65% to break even | 11.3Strong |
| Over 15.5 pts + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -120at Bovada | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 55% to break even | 8.8Strong |
| Over 16.5 pts + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 48% to break even | 5.4Good |
| Over 14.5 pts + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | -153at DraftKings | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 60% to break even | 4.1Good |
| Over 24.5 pts + reb + astJabari Smith Jr · Today 9:40 PM ET | +152at BetOnline | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 40% to break even | 2.0Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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