This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 46% to break even | 65%–100% | 54 points betterwon 100%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 46% to break even | 54%–93% | 34 points betterwon 80%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 46% to break even | 52%–87% | 28 points betterwon 73%, needs 46% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 46% to break even | 27%–100% | 54 points betterwon 100%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 63 of 9765%needs 46% to break even | 57%–72% | 19 points betterwon 65%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 64 of 9865%needs 46% to break even | 57%–73% | 20 points betterwon 65%, needs 46% |
Tonight OKC plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
4Q total points in each game against under 57.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 57.5 4th quarter totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 241.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | 4Q total points | Beat 57.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 47 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 30 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 51 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 47 | +10.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 52 | +5.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 51 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 61 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 70 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | 59 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | 42 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 64 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 50 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 40 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 59 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 64 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 55 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 68 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 56 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 61 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 50 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 44 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 67 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 63 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 43 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 66 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 32 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 46 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 61 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 35 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 54 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 66 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 45 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 59 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 47 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 12 | 41 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 53 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 45 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 64 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 42 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 58 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 46 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 58 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 51 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 44 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 48 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 70 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 52 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 50 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 46 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 58 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 58 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 51 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 51 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 66 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 64 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 44 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 53 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 45 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 45 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 71 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 65 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 51 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 37 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 65 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 10 | 45 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 55 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 65 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 57 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 66 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 66 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 69 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 53 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 58 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 60 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 50 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 48 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 49 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 52 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 73 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 53 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 53 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 59 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 45 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 39 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 38 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 67 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 54 | +3.5 | Won | |
| 34 of 97· last season35%needs 60% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -45.2Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 4th quarter totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 25 of 97· last season26%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -38.8Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 4th quarter totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 21 of 97· last season22%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -35.3Not beating its price |
| Over 63.5 4th quarter totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 20 of 97· last season21%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 64% to break even |
| 10.3Strong |
| Under 242.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 83 of 97· last season86%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | 9.1Strong |
| Under 243.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | -200at FanDuel | 86 of 97· last season89%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | 8.9Strong |
| Under 115.5 2nd half totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 36% to break even | 5.2Good |
| Under 240.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 80 of 97· last season82%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.4Slight |
| Under 239.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | -154at FanDuel | 76 of 97· last season78%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.4Slight |
| Under 117.5 2nd half totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 42% to break even | 2.3Slight |
| Under 237.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 72 of 97· last season74%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.1Slight |
| Under 123.5 2nd half totalOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 76 of 97· last season78%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.8Slight |
| Under 235.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 69 of 97· last season71%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.5Slight |
| Under 226.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +229at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 30% to break even | 1.2Slight |
| Under 232.5 game total, OKC gamesOklahoma City Thunder · Today 9:40 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 58 of 97· last season60%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.7Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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