This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 41% to break even | 44%–95% | 39 points betterwon 80%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 41% to break even | 44%–87% | 29 points betterwon 70%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 41% to break even | 39%–78% | 19 points betterwon 60%, needs 41% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 41% to break even | 27%–100% | 59 points betterwon 100%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 30 of 8137%needs 41% to break even | 29%–46% | 4 points shortwon 37%, needs 41% |
Tonight OKC plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 11.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 pointsJared McCain · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 threesJared McCain |
| Every game | 31 of 8238%needs 41% to break even | 30%–47% | 3 points shortwon 38%, needs 41% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 11.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 20 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 30 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | 20 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 24 | +12.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 3 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 3 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 26 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 3 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 20 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 11 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 14 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 20 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 21 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 12 | 13 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 17 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 3 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 6 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 14 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 20 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 25 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| +185at Bovada |
| 41 of 81· last season51%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.4Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 pointsJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | +130at Bovada | 45 of 81· last season56%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 pointsJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 47 of 81· last season58%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 pointsJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | -145at Bovada | 50 of 81· last season62%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.6Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 pointsJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | -190at Bovada | 51 of 81· last season63%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -39.3Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 pointsJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | -260at Bovada | 58 of 81· last season72%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +155at Bovada |
| 45 of 81· last season56%needs 39% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.2Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 threesJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | +154at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 39% to break even | -19.0Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 threesJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 60 of 81· last season74%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 threesJared McCain · Today 9:40 PM ET | -182at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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