This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 56% to break even | 44%–95% | 24 points betterwon 80%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 56% to break even | 54%–93% | 24 points betterwon 80%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 56% to break even | 52%–87% | 18 points betterwon 73%, needs 56% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 56% to break even | 27%–100% | 44 points betterwon 100%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 28 of 3874%needs 56% to break even | 61%–84% | 18 points betterwon 74%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 29 of 3974%needs 56% to break even | 62%–84% | 19 points betterwon 74%, needs 56% |
Tonight OKC plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against under 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 28 | 1 | +23.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 5 | +19.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 33 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 29 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 10 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 32 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 26 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 11 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 11 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 22 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 31 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 29 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 18 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 30 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 21 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 10 | 20 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 25 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 15 | +9.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 22.5 pts + rebJalen Williams · Today 9:40 PM ET | -160at Bovada | 19 of 38· last season50%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 23.5 pts + rebJalen Williams · Today 9:40 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 15 of 38· last season39%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 pts + rebJalen Williams · Today 9:40 PM ET | +115at BetMGM | 10 of 38· last season26%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.