This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 26% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 26% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points betterwon 40%, needs 26% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 26% to break even | 19%–65% | 14 points betterwon 40%, needs 26% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 26% to break even | 22%–61% | 14 points betterwon 40%, needs 26% |
| Last season | 31 of 8337%needs 26% to break even | 29%–46% | 12 points betterwon 37%, needs 26% |
| Every game | 31 of 8337%needs 26% to break even | 29%–46% | 12 points betterwon 37%, needs 26% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the underdog, against OKC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb + ast in each game against over 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb + ast | Beat 39.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 22 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 35 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 40 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 23 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 44 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 42 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 28 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 47 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 33 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 51 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 63 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 28 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 31 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 42 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 39 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 22 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 17 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 48 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 36 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 35 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 16 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 39 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 55 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 53 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 3 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 25 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 36 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 15 | STRIPES | 14 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 6 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Feb 11 | 36 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 36 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 42 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 50 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 41 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 33 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 39 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 33 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 41 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 19 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 51 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 40 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 46 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 47 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 49 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 47 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 32 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 47 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 52 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 27 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 43 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 23 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 42 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 40 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 62 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 23 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 31 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 48 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 40 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 24 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 49 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 41 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 24 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 35 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 25 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 31 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 25 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 52 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 34 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 31.5 pts + reb + astJamal Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | +130at Bovada | 25 of 83· last season30%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 32.5 pts + reb + astJamal Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 26 of 83· last season31%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 33.5 pts + reb + astJamal Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | -110at Bovada | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -28.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 34.5 pts + reb + astJamal Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | -130at Bovada | 34 of 83· last season41%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 35.5 pts + reb + astJamal Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | -150at Bovada | 37 of 83· last season45%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.