This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 44% to break even | 44%–95% | 36 points betterwon 80%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 44% to break even | 44%–87% | 26 points betterwon 70%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 20 of 3951%needs 44% to break even | 38%–64% | 7 points betterwon 51%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 20 of 3951%needs 44% to break even | 38%–64% | 7 points betterwon 51%, needs 44% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the underdog, against OKC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 25 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 assistsAaron Gordon · Today 9:40 PM ET | +210at Bovada | 13 of 39· last season33%needs 32% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 assistsAaron Gordon · Today 9:40 PM ET | -135at Bovada | 19 of 39· last season49%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.