This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 34% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points betterwon 40%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 34% to break even | 33%–72% | 19 points betterwon 53%, needs 34% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 34% to break even | 0%–73% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 47 of 8953%needs 34% to break even | 44%–61% | 18 points betterwon 53%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 47 of 9052%needs 34% to break even | 44%–61% | 18 points betterwon 52%, needs 34% |
Tonight BOS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against bos -7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | -8 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 2 | -9 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | -13 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | -16 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 32 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | -14 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 32 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 26 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | -6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 32 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 18 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | -10 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 15 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | -10 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 21 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | -2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | -9 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 20 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | -29 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 27 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 16 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 37 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | -19 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 16 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 22 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 19 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | -22 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 21 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 28 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 19 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | -11 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | -3 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 15 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | -1 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 26 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | -2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | -5 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | -4 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 31 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | -6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 18 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 16 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 13 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | -7 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | -15 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 21 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 45 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | -4 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | -8 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 36 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | -2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | -13 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 29 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | -2 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -27 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 1 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 20 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 32 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | -6 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | -10 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | -1 | -8.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.