This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 44% to break even | 27%–100% | 56 points betterwon 100%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 51 of 8957%needs 44% to break even | 49%–66% | 14 points betterwon 57%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 52 of 9058%needs 44% to break even | 49%–66% | 14 points betterwon 58%, needs 44% |
Tonight BOS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against bos 1h -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 13 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 2 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 31 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 20 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 13 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 20 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | -21 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 28 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | -21 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 26 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | -14 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 15 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 20 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 31 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 21 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | -18 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 21 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -18 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 15 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | -20 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.