This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 40% to break even | 13%–56% | 10 points shortwon 30%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 40% to break even | 8%–41% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 40% to break even | 0%–73% | 40 points shortwon 0%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 23 of 8228%needs 40% to break even | 21%–37% | 12 points shortwon 28%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 23 of 8328%needs 40% to break even | 20%–36% | 12 points shortwon 28%, needs 40% |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against mil -4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 116.5 team totalMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton |
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | -12 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | -20 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 17 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | -26 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | -6 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 16 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | -32 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | -6 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 24 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | -14 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | -32 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | -31 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | -33 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | -32 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | -7 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 11 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | -23 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | -7 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | -15 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | -39 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 14 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | -18 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | -27 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | -23 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | -29 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 11 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | -28 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 21 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Feb 12 | 17 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | -19 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 16 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | -28 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | -10 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | -17 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | -2 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | -20 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | -18 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | -33 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | -4 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | -7 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 17 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | -1 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 10 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 9 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | -21 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 17 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | -3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | -6 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | -45 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 15 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | -12 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | -15 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | -3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 17 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -9 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | -3 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | -12 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | -13 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | -9 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | -12 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | -24 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 13 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | -11 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | -7 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 16 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | -28 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -2 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 10 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 10 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | -5 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 13 | +8.5 | Won | |
| 61 of 82· last season74%needs 45% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 8.4Strong |
| Under 114.5 team totalMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +166at Kalshi | 53 of 82· last season65%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | 5.6Good |
| Under 118.5 team totalMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | -107at Kalshi | 63 of 82· last season77%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.3Slight |
| Under 234.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +124at Kalshi | 57 of 82· last season70%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.1Slight |
| Under 235.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +116at Polymarket | 57 of 82· last season70%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.5Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +107at Polymarket | 60 of 82· last season73%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.5Not beating its price |
| Under 120.5 team totalMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | -137at Kalshi | 64 of 82· last season78%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.2Not beating its price |
| Under 237.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | -101at Polymarket | 62 of 82· last season76%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.8Not beating its price |
| Under 233.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +126at Polymarket | 55 of 82· last season67%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 238.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | tS-105at theScore Bet | 63 of 82· last season77%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.4Not beating its price |
| Under 244.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | -199at Kalshi | 68 of 82· last season83%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.4Not beating its price |
| Under 240.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Bucks · Today 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | -145at Polymarket | 65 of 82· last season79%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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