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NBAGame line1st half spread
MIL 1H -3.5 (1st half spread)
Won3 of 5last 5 games · 60%
Best price+140Kalshi
Price needs41.7%wins to break even
Every game24 of 83this season and last
Trend score-16.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 42% to break even | 27%–86% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 42% to break even | 27%–73% | 8 points betterwon 50%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 42% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 42% to break even | 27%–100% | 58 points betterwon 100%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 23 of 8228%needs 42% to break even | 21%–37% | 14 points shortwon 28%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 24 of 8329%needs 42% to break even | 21%–38% | 13 points shortwon 29%, needs 42% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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MIL 1H -3.5 (1st half spread)1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
1H margin in each game against mil 1h -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  WSH | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 |  PHI | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 10 |  BKN | 12 | +8.5 | Won |
| Apr 8 |  DET | -18 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | BKN | -6 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Apr 5 |  MEM | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 3 |  BOS | -20 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  HOU | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Mar 31 |  DAL | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Mar 29 |  LAC | -11 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Mar 28 |  SA | -22 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  POR | -22 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 | LAC | -24 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  PHX | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 19 |  UTAH | -20 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 |  CLE | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 15 |  IND | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 |  ATL | -8 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MIA | -8 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 | PHX | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 |  ORL | -12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Mar 7 | UTAH | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 4 | ATL | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 2 | BOS | -14 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 |  CHI | 15 | +11.5 | Won |
| Feb 27 |  NY | -20 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Feb 25 | CLE | -1 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 | MIA | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 22 |  TOR | -9 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Feb 20 |  NO | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Feb 12 |  OKC | 12 | +8.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 | ORL | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 9 | ORL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 6 | IND | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Feb 4 | NO | -7 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 | CHI | 25 | +21.5 | Won |
| Feb 1 | BOS | -14 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | WSH | -14 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 27 | PHI | -9 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Jan 23 |  DEN | -6 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Jan 21 | OKC | -18 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Jan 19 | ATL | 16 | +12.5 | Won |
| Jan 15 | SA | -13 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Jan 13 |  MIN | -31 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | DEN | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Jan 9 |  LAL | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Jan 7 |  GS | -11 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 |  SAC | 18 | +14.5 | Won |
| Jan 2 |  CHA | -9 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Dec 31 | WSH | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 29 | CHA | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | CHI | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 26 | MEM | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Dec 23 | IND | 15 | +11.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | MIN | 12 | +8.5 | Won |
| Dec 18 | TOR | -4 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | BKN | -17 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Dec 11 | BOS | -7 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | DET | -5 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | PHI | -20 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 | DET | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 1 | WSH | 8 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | BKN | 18 | +14.5 | Won |
| Nov 28 | NY | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | MIA | -6 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 24 | POR | -12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | DET | -17 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Nov 20 | PHI | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 17 | CLE | -2 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | LAL | -31 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | CHA | -8 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | CHA | -9 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | DAL | -4 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | HOU | 11 | +7.5 | Won |
| Nov 7 | CHI | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 4 | TOR | -19 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | IND | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | SAC | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | GS | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 28 | NY | -12 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | CLE | -9 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | TOR | -2 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | WSH | 19 | +15.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Milwaukee Bucks in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.