This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 52% to break even | 5%–56% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 52% to break even | 2%–35% | 42 points shortwon 10%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 52% to break even | 5%–33% | 39 points shortwon 13%, needs 52% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 52% to break even | 0%–73% | 52 points shortwon 0%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 13 of 6520%needs 52% to break even | 13%–29% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 13 of 6620%needs 52% to break even | 13%–29% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% |
Tonight CHI plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + ast in each game against under 12.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + ast | Beat 12.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 27 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 34 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 29 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 35 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 26 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 25 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 30 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 22 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 22 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 24 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 27 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 17 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 26 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 17 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 4 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 25 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 15 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 41 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 14 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 32 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 15 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 17 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 22 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 17 | 22 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 19 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 27 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 11.5 pts + astTre Jones · Today 4:10 PM ETWithout Claxton | -165at Bovada | 53 of 65· last season82%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.2Slight | |
| Over 12.5 pts + astTre Jones · Today 4:10 PM ETWithout Claxton | -120at DraftKings | 52 of 65· last season80%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | 8.0Good | |
| Over 13.5 pts + astTre Jones · Today 4:10 PM ETWithout Claxton | +110at Bovada | 51 of 65· last season78%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | 6.3Good | |
| Over 14.5 pts + astTre Jones · Today 4:10 PM ETWithout Claxton | +135at DraftKings | 50 of 65· last season77%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | 10.6Strong |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.