This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 46% to break even | 44%–95% | 34 points betterwon 80%, needs 46% | 2.2steals |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 46% to break even | 27%–73% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% | 1.7steals |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 46% to break even | 33%–72% | 7 points betterwon 53%, needs 46% | 1.8steals |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 46% to break even | 42%–100% | 54 points betterwon 100%, needs 46% | 2.5steals |
| Last season | 6 of 1443%needs 46% to break even | 24%–64% | 3 points shortwon 43%, needs 46% | 1.6steals |
| Every game | 8 of 1650%needs 46% to break even | 31%–69% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% | 1.8steals |
Tonight NO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 9 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Steals in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Steals | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.