This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% | 15.8points |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 54% to break even | 35%–81% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% | 17.7points |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 54% to break even | 46%–83% | 12 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% | 17.3points |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 54% to break even | 12%–88% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% | 19.5points |
| Last season |
Tonight NO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 8 of 9 on the road.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 17.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 17.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 16 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gets a triple-double |
| 49%–86% |
| 17 points betterwon 71%, needs 54% |
| 16.7points |
| Every game | 11 of 1669%needs 54% to break even | 48%–84% | 14 points betterwon 69%, needs 54% | 17.1points |
| Oct 21 | 23 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 2 | 9 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 26 | 12 | +5.5 | Won |
| Mar 24 | 7 | +10.5 | Won |
| Mar 21 | 12 | +5.5 | Won |
| Mar 18 | 17 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 13 | 35 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Mar 11 | 27 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 | 19 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 6 | 15 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 3 | 15 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 1 | 17 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 26 | 17 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 24 | 13 | +4.5 | Won |
| -190at Fanatics |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 66% to break even6 of 9 on the road |
| -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -145at Fanatics | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 59% to break even4 of 9 on the road | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even3 of 9 on the road | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +115at Fanatics | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 47% to break even1 of 9 on the road | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +130at Fanatics | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even1 of 9 on the road | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +165at BetMGM | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 38% to break even1 of 9 on the road | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +190at Fanatics | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 34% to break even1 of 9 on the road | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 pointsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +240at Fanatics | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 29% to break even1 of 9 on the road | -16.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +2500at FanDuel |
| 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 4% to break even0 of 9 on the road |
| -2.9Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 reb + astDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -138at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 58% to break even8 of 9 on the road | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 assistsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +255at FanDuel | 5 of 14· last season36%needs 28% to break even3 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 stealsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +117at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 46% to break even5 of 9 on the road | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Gets a double-doubleDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +500at DraftKings | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 17% to break even0 of 9 on the road | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 reboundsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +222at DraftKings | 5 of 14· last season36%needs 31% to break even5 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 reb + astDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +340at DraftKings | 3 of 14· last season21%needs 23% to break even2 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 assistsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even4 of 9 on the road | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 pts + rebDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 pts + astDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -118at DraftKings | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 54% to break even7 of 9 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | +125at Fanatics | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 44% to break even6 of 9 on the road | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 reboundsDejounte Murray · Today 9:10 PM ET | -145at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 59% to break even8 of 9 on the road | -15.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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