This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 12.2points |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 13.8points |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% | 12.9points |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 53% to break even | 42%–100% | 47 points betterwon 100%, needs 53% | 9.5points |
| Last season | 20 of 6929%needs 53% to break even | 21%–39% | 24 points shortwon 29%, needs 53% | 15.5points |
| Every game | 22 of 7131%needs 53% to break even | 23%–41% | 22 points shortwon 31%, needs 53% | 15.4points |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against CHA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 11 of 35 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 11.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 11.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 27 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 4 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 5 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 24 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 21 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 15 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 12 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 12 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 9 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 12 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 28 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 26 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 26 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 19 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 15 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 16 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 23 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 12 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 19 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 28 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 19 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 13 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 22 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 31 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 11 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 15 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 23 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 15 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 22 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 22 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 15 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 24 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 21 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 9 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 11.5 pointsAndrew Wiggins · Today 6:10 PM ET | -122at BetRivers | 49 of 69· last season71%needs 55% to break even24 of 35 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 12.5 pointsAndrew Wiggins · Today 6:10 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 45 of 69· last season65%needs 53% to break even22 of 35 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 13.5 pointsAndrew Wiggins · Today 6:10 PM ET | +138at BetRivers | 40 of 69· last season58%needs 42% to break even20 of 35 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 pointsAndrew Wiggins · Today 6:10 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 36 of 69· last season52%needs 40% to break even19 of 35 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 15.5 pointsAndrew Wiggins · Today 6:10 PM ET | +225at BetRivers | 31 of 69· last season45%needs 31% to break even16 of 35 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 16.5 pointsAndrew Wiggins · Today 6:10 PM ET | +225at Fanatics | 28 of 69· last season41%needs 31% to break even15 of 35 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.