This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 57% to break even | 0%–35% | 57 points shortwon 0%, needs 57% | lost by 0.8goals |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 57% to break even | 2%–35% | 47 points shortwon 10%, needs 57% | lost by 0.3goals |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 57% to break even | 8%–41% | 37 points shortwon 20%, needs 57% | lost by 0.1goals |
| This season | 8 of 3027%needs 57% to break even | 16%–41% | 31 points shortwon 27%, needs 57% | won by 0.1goals |
| Last season | 20 of 3951%needs 57% to break even | 38%–64% | 6 points shortwon 51%, needs 57% | won by 0.2goals |
| Every game | 28 of 6941%needs 57% to break even | 31%–50% | 17 points shortwon 41%, needs 57% | won by 0.1goals |
Tonight NYC plays at home, as the favorite, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 15 of 33 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against NYC to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 game total, NYC gamesNew York City FC · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET | PRX-167at betPARX | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 63% to break even22 of 33 at home | -5.0Not beating its price | ||
| Draw, NYC gamesNew York City FC · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET | +300at Hard Rock | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 25% to break even6 of 33 at home | -6.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 game total, NYC gamesNew York City FC · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET | PRX+128at betPARX | 13 of 39· last season33%needs 44% to break even11 of 33 at home | Record is last season's | -30.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.