This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 64% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 3.2total goals |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 64% to break even | 44%–87% | 6 points betterwon 70%, needs 64% | 2.9total goals |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 64% to break even | 39%–78% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% | 3.1total goals |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 64% to break even | 41%–90% | 7 points betterwon 71%, needs 64% | 2.7total goals |
| Last season | 23 of 3468%needs 64% to break even | 54%–79% | 3 points betterwon 68%, needs 64% | 2.9total goals |
| Every game | 28 of 4168%needs 64% to break even | 56%–79% | 4 points betterwon 68%, needs 64% | 2.8total goals |
Tonight PAR plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against RCL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 16 of 20 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 17 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | METZ | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 10 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 14 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | NAN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | NAN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | METZ | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 23 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, PAR gamesParis FC · Today 2:45 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 61% to break even9 of 20 on the road | -20.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 game total, PAR gamesParis FC · Today 2:45 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 39% to break even4 of 20 on the road | -20.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.