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La LigaGame lineTotal
Villarreal @ Valencia: under 2.5
Won16 of 38last season · 42%
Best price+116Polymarket
Price needs46.3%wins to break even
Every game19 of 47this season and last
Trend score-25.2Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 46% to break even | 13%–56% | 16 points shortwon 30%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 46% to break even | 17%–54% | 13 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| This season | 3 of 933%needs 46% to break even | 14%–60% | 13 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 16 of 3842%needs 46% to break even | 30%–55% | 4 points shortwon 42%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 19 of 4740%needs 46% to break even | 29%–52% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
Games like tonight
Tonight VIL plays on the road, as the favorite, against VAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Villarreal @ Valencia: under 2.59 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Total goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 |  ELC | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 10 |  RMA | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 |  LEV | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 17 |  MCF | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 |  BET | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 |  DEP | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 28 |  ALA | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Aug 23 |  ATM | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 16 |  RAC | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | ATM | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| May 17 |  RAY | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 13 |  SEV | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| May 10 | MLL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 2 | LEV | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Apr 26 |  CEL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 23 | OVI | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 12 |  ATH | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 6 | GIR | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 20 |  RSO | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 13 | ALA | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 8 | ELC | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 28 |  BAR | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 22 |  VAL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 18 | LEV | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 14 |  GET | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 9 |  ESP | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 31 |  OSA | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 24 | RMA | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 17 | BET | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 10 | ALA | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | ELC | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | BAR | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 6 | GET | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | RSO | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | MLL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | ESP | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | RAY | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | VAL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | BET | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | RMA | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | ATH | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 23 | SEV | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | OSA | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | ATM | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 31 | CEL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 24 | GIR | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 15 | OVI | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, VIL gamesVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET |  -134at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even | -14.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 game total, VIL gamesVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | +193at Polymarket | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 34% to break even | -5.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Villarreal in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 team totalVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 23 of 38· last season61%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price | |
| VIL to win moneylineVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET |  +120at DraftKings | 22 of 38· last season58%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price | |
| VIL -0.5 spreadVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | LVG+119at LowVig | 22 of 38· last season58%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 team totalVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 15 of 38· last season39%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.