This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 46% to break even | 13%–56% | 16 points shortwon 30%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 46% to break even | 17%–54% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 46% |
| This season | 2 of 922%needs 46% to break even | 8%–50% | 23 points shortwon 22%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 22 of 3858%needs 46% to break even | 45%–70% | 12 points betterwon 58%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 24 of 4751%needs 46% to break even | 39%–63% | 5 points betterwon 51%, needs 46% |
Tonight VIL plays on the road, as the favorite, against VAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against vil -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | MLL | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 2 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | OVI | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | GIR | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | MLL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | GIR | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Aug 15 | OVI | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.