This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 45% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points shortwon 40%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 45% to break even | 13%–56% | 15 points shortwon 30%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 45% to break even | 17%–54% | 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 45% |
| This season | 2 of 922%needs 45% to break even | 8%–50% | 23 points shortwon 22%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 22 of 3858%needs 45% to break even | 45%–70% | 12 points betterwon 58%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 24 of 4751%needs 45% to break even | 39%–63% | 6 points betterwon 51%, needs 45% |
Tonight VIL plays on the road, as the favorite, against VAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against vil to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 game total, VIL gamesVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET |
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | MLL | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 2 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | OVI | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | GIR | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | MLL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | GIR | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Aug 15 | OVI | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 34% to break even |
| -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 team totalVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 23 of 38· last season61%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 game total, VIL gamesVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even | -14.6Not beating its price |
| VIL -0.5 spreadVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | LVG+119at LowVig | 22 of 38· last season58%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, VIL gamesVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 16 of 38· last season42%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 team totalVillarreal · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 15 of 38· last season39%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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