This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 46% to break even | 27%–86% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 46% to break even | 13%–56% | 16 points shortwon 30%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 46% to break even | 22%–61% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| This season | 3 of 743%needs 46% to break even | 19%–71% | 3 points shortwon 43%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 17 of 3845%needs 46% to break even | 32%–58% | 2 points shortwon 45%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 20 of 4544%needs 46% to break even | 33%–57% | 2 points shortwon 44%, needs 46% |
Tonight LIV plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against BHA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against liv -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | WOL | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 28 | WHU | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Feb 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | BUR | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | WOL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | WHU | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | BUR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.